"For the first time, this study showed that bacteria concentrations could be forecasted with reasonable accuracy, hastening the day when people will be able to better plan their beach holidays," the report says.
In the new study, Walter E. Frick and colleagues explain that decisions on whether beaches are safe for swimming, or should be closed due to fecal contamination, are based on testing the water for E. coli.
However, existing tests take 24 hours to complete, providing a backward-only look at conditions the previous day. As a result, beaches may be closed unnecessarily when water quality has improved, or open when water quality has declined and disease-causing microorganisms are present.
Building on pioneering modeling studies in the Great Lakes by the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) and others, the researchers developed "Virtual Beach," a broadly-applicable software tool for the development of models that predict concentrations of indicators of fecal contamination at beaches.
Unique features of Virtual Beach are the ability to evaluate a dynamic modeling approach for using short-term data sets to rapidly develop reliable models, and the use of available weather and marine forecast variables to forecast E. coli levels 24 hours or more in advance.
Evaluations of Virtual Beach were accomplished using data collected by USGS, NOAA and other sources for Huntington Beach on Lake Erie in northeastern Ohio. During the 42-day study, models developed by Virtual Beach correctly forecasted 24 hours in advance eight instances when E. coli levels exceeded safety standards. These results exceeded the accuracy of traditional sampling methods and approximately matched the accuracy of nowcasting (real-time predictions), according to the researchers.
Source: ACS
Related stories:
Cassini instrument confirms liquid surface lake on Titan
Scientists have confirmed that at least one body in our solar system, other than Earth, has a surface liquid lake. Using an instrument on NASA's Cassini orbiter, they discovered that a lake-like feature in the south polar region of Saturn's moon, Titan, is truly wet. The lake is about 235 kilometers, or 150 miles, long.
Mud pots signal possible extension of San Andreas Fault
A linear string of mud pots and mud volcanoes suggest surface evidence for a southern extension of the San Andreas Fault that runs through the Salton Sea, according to a paper published in the August issue of the
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (BSSA).
Snapshot of past climate reveals no ice in Antarctica millions of years ago
A snapshot of New Zealand's climate 40 million years ago reveals a greenhouse Earth, with warmer seas and little or no ice in Antarctica, according to research published this week in the journal
Geology.
Scientists offer new explanation for monsoon development
Geoscientists at the California Institute of Technology have come up with a new explanation for the formation of monsoons, proposing an overhaul of a theory about the cause of the seasonal pattern of heavy winds and rainfall that essentially had held firm for more than 300 years.
Leatherback turtles' newly discovered migration route may be roadmap to salvation
With a name like "Leatherback Turtle" you might think the sea turtles could stand up to just about anything the ocean can throw at them, and for more than a hundred million years, they have. But tough, long-lived critters though they are, the population of leatherbacks in the eastern Pacific Ocean has plummeted by over 90 percent in the last 20 years.
Summer Storms Could Mean More Dead Zones
(PhysOrg.com) -- It's summertime and people are flocking to the coasts around the country. But when summer storms arrive, it's not only beach-goers who are affected; the rains can also have an impact on living creatures far below the ocean surface.
Touching research: To improve robots, researcher eyes jellyfish
(PhysOrg.com) -- Biology professor Joseph Ayers is expanding his research on animals’ nervous systems that produced the RoboLobster and RoboLamprey to include a study on tactile sensory perception in jellyfish and lobsters.
From beach to backyard, caution can reduce firepit burns
Backyard barbecues and beach bonfires are beloved summer activities across the country, but they also put people – especially children – at risk of painful, long-term injury.
