The Bradley effect may be alive and multiplying after Super Tuesday. Sifting through overnight results, University of Washington researchers have found that race still plays a role in American politics and it showed up Tuesday in surprising ways in the tallies from four states holding Democratic primary elections.
Early analysis of primary counts and polling data from the final week of the campaign indicated that pre-election polls exaggerated support for Sen. Barack Obama in two states with relatively low black populations -- California and Massachusetts. But he benefited from a newly discovered "reverse" Bradley effect in Alabama and Georgia where blacks make up a larger bloc of voters.
The Bradley effect was first noticed by researchers in 1982 when black Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley had a solid lead in the pre-election gubernatorial polls, but lost a close election in California to his Republican opponent. Results from that and other races involving black candidates indicated that polling tended to overstate support for black candidates compared to their actual vote percentages.
Last December, Bethany Albertson, a UW assistant political science professor, and Anthony Greenwald, a UW psychology professor, analyzed data from an online test that measures unconscious or automatic preferences and surmised that the Bradley effect could well repeat itself in 2008.
The UW researchers had good late-polling data from 11 Super Tuesday states, as well as earlier data from New Hampshire and South Carolina. New Hampshire was another state that showed the Bradley effect, while South Carolina showed the reverse Bradley effect.
Greenwald said actual results of the Democratic primaries in California, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama compared against late polling numbers all substantially exceeded the polls' expected margin of error, being off between 8 and 18 percent. By contrast, they found Republican vote totals and poll numbers were only substantially off in Massachusetts where Mitt Romney's winning margin was less than predicted.
The UW researchers plan to further investigate the Bradley and reverse Bradley effects as the 2008 election season plays out.
Source: University of Washington
Related stories:
Bright sparks make gains towards plastic lasers of the future
Imperial researchers have come one step closer to finding the 'holy grail' in the field of plastic semiconductors by demonstrating a class of material that could make electrically-driven plastic laser diodes a reality.
Research: Wisconsin primary results could provide strong clue about Texas and Ohio primaries
The Wisconsin primary on Tuesday could be a bellwether for primaries in Ohio and Texas, according to analysis by two University of Washington researchers. The findings indicate that in American politics, race still matters.
Imaging study reveals rapid formation of Alzheimer's-associated plaques
The amyloid plaques found in the brains of Alzheimer’s disease patients may form much more rapidly than previously expected. Using an advanced microscopic imaging technique to examine brain tissue in mouse models of the devastating neurological disorder, researchers from the MassGeneral Institute for Neurodegenerative Disease (MGH-MIND), working with colleagues from Washington University School of Medicine, find that plaques can develop in as little as a day and that Alzheimer’s-associated neuronal changes appear soon afterwards. Their report will appear in the Feb. 7 issue of
Nature.
Treating obstructive sleep apnea, preventing heart attacks and strokes
Researchers in Brazil have found that treating patients who suffer from obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) dramatically reduces early indications of atherosclerosis in just months, linking OSA directly to the hardening or narrowing of the arteries. Until now, no study has demonstrated such a direct relationship between the two.
Boys' use of video game magazines studied
U.S. researchers have found a surprising cultural influence on some boys' drive for muscularity: video gaming magazines.
Minuscule molecules pack a powerful punch
A role for a microRNA in the immune system has been shown by study of one of the world’s first microRNA knockout mouse, reported Friday 27 April in
Science. The microRNA acts as a lynchpin to balance the response of immune defences and the researchers suggest the corresponding human gene will have a similar vital role.
From electronics to photonics; Modulating light with electricity
Much of our electronics could soon be replaced by photonics, in which beams of light flitting through microscopic channels on a silicon chip replace electrons in wires. Photonic chips would carry more data, use less power and work smoothly with fiber-optic communications systems. The trick is to get electronics and photonics to talk to each other.
Now Cornell University researchers have taken a major step forward in bridging this communication gap by developing a silicon device that allows an electrical signal to modulate a beam of light on a micrometer scale.
Global warming greatest in past decade
Researchers confirm that surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere were warmer over the last 10 years than any time during the last 1300 years, and, if the climate scientists include the somewhat controversial data derived from tree-ring records, the warming is anomalous for at least 1700 years.