Scientists say they've concluded containment might buy time, but is not enough to stop a flu pandemic.
Through mathematical modeling, researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston and Seattle's University of Washington show flu outbreaks are likely to emerge in multiple locations and containment of all outbreaks is improbable.
Based on the modeling, the scientists predict containment efforts could likely double the time before a pandemic appears. But they say containment should be just one element of a multi-pronged preparedness strategy.
The work is part of a project aimed at developing modeling techniques to understand the spread of infectious diseases, including pandemic flu.
The findings appear in PLoS Medicine online.
Copyright 2006 by United Press International
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