New sequential decision making model could be key to artificial intelligence

“Decision making,” Mikhail Rabinovich tells PhysOrg.com, “is everywhere, and not just with humans. Animals use it, and robots do. But the traditional approach to decision making is too simple.”

Rabinovich and his colleague at the Institute for Nonlinear Science at the University of California, San Diego, Ramon Huerta, along with Valentin Afraimovich at the Institute for the Investigation of Optical Communication at the University of San Luis Potosi in Mexico, present a new model for understanding decision making. Their paper, titled “Dynamics of Sequential Decision Making,” has been published on Physical Review Letters.

The idea behind sequential decision making is fairly simple: if an intelligence has to decide between two items, something will follow, based on the decision made. “In the traditional, simplistic model,” says Rabinovich, the decision maker has to answer a simple question — left or right for instance — choosing between two attractors.” This results in a simple “if-then” equation. However, when real decision making is in question, there is more than a simple “if-then” at work. “In reality,” he says, “it’s much more complex and interesting.”

Rabinovich explains that a sequential approach is needed: an approach that combines dynamic and probabilistic steps. And that, he says, is precisely what he, Huerta and Afraimovich are proposing. “This is a new class of model,” he says. “We have found a window to consciousness, and now we can generalize this into other cognitive functions.” He lists sequential attention, working memory and planning as other cognitive areas that could be benefited by this research into sequential decision making.

But it’s not just the knowledge of how we humans might do something that makes Rabinovich and his colleagues’ work so interesting. “This can be applied to the artificial brain,” Rabinovich insists. “If we are going to create an intelligent brain for a robot, we have to think of these independent elements.” Basically, a process is needed for modeling a robot brain that could work as a human or animal brain. This is a model for getting there: “We have to be able to answer these questions in a qualitative way.”

“If you are talking about an animal trying to flee from a predator, you have to look at the complex landscape. The prey has more than one decision to make. It has to decide which way to go not only at this moment, but at each moment for the length of its life. And there are other factors that influence the decision as well.” Rabinovich continues his illustration: “The same is with a robot that we put on another planet. It has to make a decision at many critical moments, not only about direction, but also about speed, whether or not to go, and other decisions at each decision making moment.”

The paper describes this new class of models using differential equations with finite possibilities, as well as suggesting rules for solving uncertainty. Rabinovich, Huerta and Afraimovich use an approach based on competition between cognitive states that are possible with the use of transient dynamics. Environmental decision making criterion are used to model how the sequential steps of the process are controlled. The paper finds that the length of life for the process depends on the number of choices, as well as the cognitive agents involved which both characterize the level of system intelligence.

Rabinovich clearly sees many benefits in further developing this work. “This is important,” he says. “Any kind of real life needs some kind of sequential decision making activity.”

By Miranda Marquit, Copyright 2006 PhysOrg.com

Related stories:

Withdrawal of life support often an imperfect compromise
Intensive Care Unit (ICU) doctors seeking to balance the complex needs of their patients and the patients' families may make an imperfect compromise, withdrawing life support systems over a prolonged period of time. This practice is much more common than previously believed, and is also surprisingly associated with higher satisfaction with care-at least among surviving family members.
Don't count on long-term success in climate policy, warns paper in Decision Analysis
Long-term climate change policy in the U.S. and abroad is likely to change very slowly, warns a researcher who calls for stronger short-term goals to reduce carbon emissions, according to a study published in Decision Analysis, a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).
Online Dating: Where Technology and Evolution Collide
When searching for a soul mate, you might think that the more options, the better. But the rise of technology – notably, the Internet – has thrown a wedge in that perception.
'Might have been' key in evaluating behavior
"What might have been" or fictive learning affects the brain and plays an important role in the choices individuals make – and may play a role in addiction, said Baylor College of Medicine researchers and others in a report that appears online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Biochip allows genes to express themselves
Biochip platforms that work as artificial cells are attractive for medical diagnostics, interrogation of biological processes, and for the production of important biomolecules. However, to match the complexity of nature, the biochips need to be designed such that proteins, DNA, and other important biological components can be located in specific, spatially well-defined regions on the chips.
The Final IAU Resolution on the definition of 'planet' ready for voting
At the second session of the 2006 International Astronomical Union (IAU) General Assembly, which will be held 14:00 CEST (08:00 EDT) Thursday 24 August, members of the IAU will vote on the Resolutions presented below. There will be separate sequential votes on Resolution 5A and Resolution 5B. Similarly, there will be separate votes on Resolutions 6A and 6B.
Microsoft attempts to sour Apple's laptop launch
(AP) -- Tactics reminiscent of a close presidential race seem to be popping up in Microsoft Corp.'s rivalry with Apple Inc.
School voucher adoption affected by political decision-making
In many countries, school vouchers have come to be a controversial policy which allows parents to pay for the education of their children at a school of their choice, rather than the public school to which they are assigned. A new study in the journal Governance shows how the success of governments in introducing vouchers is highly correlated with these countries' different political institutions and traditions.

News discussion:

A souped up neural network, is it? in Physics news