Earthquake experts turn to history for guidance

A major quake of magnitude seven on the Richter scale in the politically-fragile region of the Middle East could have dire consequences for precious holy sites and even world peace, says Tel Aviv University geologist Dr. Shmulik Marco. In light of this imminent danger, Marco, from the school’s Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, has taken an historical approach to earthquake forecasting by using ancient records from the Vatican and other religious sources in his assessment. The past holds the key to the future, he says.

“All of us in the region should be worried,” explains Marco, who dedicates his career to piecing together ancient clues.

Based on the translations of hundreds of documents – some of the originals of which he assumes reside in Vatican vaults – Marco has helped determine that a series of devastating earthquakes have hit the Holy Land over the last two thousand years. The major ones were recorded along the Jordan Valley in the years 31 B.C.E., 363 C.E., 749 C.E., and 1033 C.E. “So roughly,” warns Marco, “we are talking about an interval of every 400 years. If we follow the patterns of nature, a major quake should be expected any time because almost a whole millennium has passed since the last strong earthquake of 1033.”

Written by monks and clergy, the documents, which span about two millenia, can help determine the location and impact of future quakes on several fault planes cutting through Israel and its neighboring countries, Marco believes. “We use the records, written in churches and monasteries or by hermits in the desert, to find patterns,” he says. Marco credits the help of an international team of historians, who have deciphered the Latin, Greek, and Arabic of the original correspondence.

He continues, “Even if these papers were not ‘officially’ recording history, they hold a lot of information. ... Some are letters to Europe asking for funding of church repairs. And while many of these accounts are told in an archaic religious manner, they help us confirm the dates and location of major calamities. Following these patterns in the past can be a good predictor of the future.”

One of the most cited Christian chroniclers in history upon whom Marco bases some of his conclusions is a ninth-century Byzantine aristocratic monk named Theophanes, venerated today by Catholics. In one manuscript, Theophanes wrote, “A great earthquake in Palestine, by the Jordan and in all of Syria on 18 January in the 4th hour. Numberless multitudes perished, churches and monasteries collapsed especially in the desert of the Holy City.”

While Christian sources helped Marco confirm ancient catastrophes and cast light on future ones, Jewish sources from the Bible also gave him small pieces of the puzzle. A verse in Zachariah (Ch. 14) describes two instances of earthquakes, one of which split apart the Mount of Olives, he says. Muslim clergy have also collected ancient correspondence, which further broadens the picture.

”Earthquakes are a manifestation of deeper processes inside the earth,” Marco says. “My questions and analysis examine how often they occur and whether there is pattern to them, temporally or spatially. I am looking for patterns and I can say that based on ancient records, the pattern in Israel around the Dead Sea region is the most disturbing to us.

“When it strikes – and it will – this quake will affect Amman, Jordan as well as Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Jerusalem. Earthquakes don’t care about religion or political boundaries,” Marco concludes.

Source: American Friends of Tel Aviv University

Related stories:

Stopping The Next Big One
A system that could predict earthquakes has long been the Holy Grail of scientists trying to prevent the next catastrophe. Now a small Israeli company, backed by experts, is not only claiming to have discovered a method for accurately predicting earthquakes well before they occur, but also for preventing some of them.
Digging biblical history, or the end of the world
Some come to dig the Tel Aviv University-directed archeological site at Tel Megiddo because they are enchanted by ancient stories of King Solomon. Others come because they believe in a New Testament prophecy that the mound of dirt will be the location of a future Judgment Day apocalyptic battle. Hence the second, rather more chilling name for the site: "Armageddon."
Biggest recorded earthquake was brewing for four centuries
The earthquake that rocked Chile in 1960 - at magnitude 9.5, the biggest ever recorded - was preceded by almost 400 years of accumulating stress, according to studies of the region's buried soils and sand. Strain had been building up on the fault ever since the Spanish conquistadors were jolted by a large quake in 1575.
Green light for Lazio–Sirad
The experiment on the International Space Station that will chase earthquakes

Lazio-Sirad is ready to gather data. The experiment is installed on the International Space Station and its aim is to trace the slight variations of the so-called Van Allen belts that seem to occur before earthquakes.
Birds' harmonious duets can be 'aggressive audio warfare,' study finds
Researchers reporting in the September 4th Current Biology, a Cell Press publication, have new insight into the motivating factors that drive breeding pairs of some tropical bird species to sing duets. Those duets can be so closely matched that human listeners often mistake them for solos.
First particles observed in Large Hadron Collider
(PhysOrg.com) -- Glasgow scientists, working at CERN, have observed the first particles in the Large Hadron Collider during preliminary tests ahead of the switch-on next month.
Intel and Yahoo! to Bring the Internet to Television
Intel Corporation and Yahoo! Inc. today previewed plans for the Widget Channel, a television (TV) application framework optimized for TV and related consumer electronics (CE) devices that use the Intel Architecture. The Widget Channel will allow consumers to enjoy rich Internet applications designed for the TV while watching their favorite TV programs.
Researchers discover primary sensor that detects stomach viruses
Scientists at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have identified the primary immune sensor that detects the presence of stomach viruses in the body. They show that the sensor – a protein called MDA-5 – triggers an immune response that revs up the body's defenses to fight off the infection. This knowledge may help develop a treatment that prevents or reduces infection, the researchers suggest in their study, published July 18th in the open-access journal PLoS Pathogens.

News discussion:

Space & Earth science news