Late Registrants More Likely to Vote, Finds Study of Voter Participation

People who register to vote closer to registration deadlines are much more likely to vote on Election Day than are people who register earlier in an election year, according to the study conducted by political scientists from the University at Buffalo, University of Maryland and University of Texas.

"It's a very interesting pattern," says UB researcher Joshua J. Dyck, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science. "For political campaigns focused on get-out-the-vote efforts, the takeaway message is this: you'll get more bang for your buck if you focus on the narrow window close to the registration deadline.

"That's where we see a huge surge in voter registration and those people are much more likely to turn out to vote."

Dyck's co-researchers were James G. Gimpel, Ph.D., professor of government at University of Maryland, and Daron R. Shaw, Ph.D., associate professor of government at University of Texas.

The researchers focused on voter registration and voter turnout in large counties in six states during the 2000 presidential campaign. These included battleground states Florida, Iowa and New Mexico, as well as Kentucky, Nevada and North Carolina. The sample included more than 400,000 registered voters. The deadline for voter registration is about 30 days before an election in most states.

To be published in a forthcoming issue of Party Politics, the study is one of the first to assess to the effect of timing and campaign activity on voter registration, explains Dyck, an expert on political participation. Campaigns historically have focused on turning out registered voters, but with the closeness of recent national elections the major parties are focusing more on voter registration, he notes.

"Political parties are much more effective at turning out people who they know are going to be reliable supporters than they are at generating new voters," Dyck explains. "These results show that they should consider adding late-registration drives to their outreach, and that timing is important."

The study found that people who registered to vote the week of the registration deadline were 16 percent more likely to vote than those who registered one year from the deadline. Of the late registrants, young adults were 15 percent less likely to vote than older adults, and women were more likely than men to turn out. Across all counties studied, an average of 125 percent more registrants signed up in the three weeks prior to the deadline than in all previous weeks.

Also, Republican late registrants were much more likely to vote than late-registering Democrats. The study showed that in most places where Democrats "won" the election in 2000, they had to register many more people than the Republicans because the GOP's new registrants appeared to vote at almost twice the rate as new Democratic registrants. Late registrants from both parties were more likely to vote than independents.

As a group, late registrants were generally young adults between the ages of 18-49; the majority were under 40. Most late registrants were independents, particularly among younger adults.

The study also found that spikes in voter registration coincided with the occurrence of conventions, primaries and other major political events during an election year. "This would appear to be good news for campaign organizers, but it is unclear if the spike in registrations after major political events is result of extensive party outreach that accompany these events or a spontaneous reaction," Dyck says.

Another spike in registration occurred after Independence Day, when campaigns targeted communities that grant citizenship to immigrants on that date, the study shows.

On the flipside, the study also suggests much more muted electoral effects from motor voter laws. While people are registering with greater frequency when they make their regular trip to the DMV, the electoral gains realized from this registration increase is nowhere near to what you get over the course of a campaign.

"Reforms, such as motor voter laws, aimed solely at increasing registration rates, will not necessarily lead to higher voter turnout," Dyck says.

Source: University at Buffalo

Aiming to sway voters, candidates emphasize hot-button issues across party lines
The 2004 presidential candidates reached out to voters across the political aisle – but not in a genuinely conciliatory spirit, according to a new analysis which says that George W. Bush and John Kerry sought to peel away voters from the opposing party using hot-button issues. The strategy leads to fragmentation, say political scientists, as candidates focus on multiple controversial issues, such as stem cell research or immigration, often communicating different priorities in an effort to gain votes.
How social pressure increases voter turnout: Evidence from a large-scale field experiment
New research by political scientists concludes that direct mail campaigns which include a social pressure aspect are more effective at increasing voter turnout and are cheaper than other forms of voter mobilization, including door-to-door or telephone canvassing.
Requiring photo ID has little effect on voter turnout, MU study finds
With the 2008 Presidential election less than a year away, many states are working to require photo identification from all voters in an attempt to curb illegal voting. Critics argue that the requirement is unconstitutional and will ultimately reduce participation in elections. However, a recent study of Indiana’s photo ID law, conducted by a University of Missouri professor, found that requiring identification doesn’t have much impact on voter turnout rates.
Timing of political messages influences voter preferences, researcher finds
In political campaigns, timing is almost everything. Candidates communicate with voters over a long period of time before voters actually vote. What candidates say to these voters is, of course, important, but it turns out that when they say it also influences voter preferences.
Political participation is partially rooted in genetic inheritance
The decision to vote is partly genetic, according to a new study published in the American Political Science Review. The research, by James H. Fowler and Christopher T. Dawes, of the University of California, San Diego and Laura A. Baker, of the University of Southern California, is the first to show that genes influence participation in elections and in a wide range of political activities.
Why do people vote? Genetic variation in political participation
A groundbreaking new study finds that genes significantly affect variation in voter turnout, shedding new light on the reasons why people vote and participate in the political system.
Media bias can net mistakes at the ballot box
The media slant political news to the left or right to increase ratings and profits, spinning up an information vacuum that can lead to mistakes at the ballot box, a new study by three University of Illinois economists says.
More Than Issues, Candidates Hurt Democratic Presidential Ambitions In 2000, 2004
It’s the candidate, stupid. A new book analyzing the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections in the United States provides some of the clearest evidence to date about why George W. Bush captured the White House and the Democratic candidates failed.

Late Registrants More Likely to Vote, Finds Study of Voter Participation

Related stories:

News discussion: